Projekcja opłacalności produkcji zbóż i rzepaku w perspektywie 2022 roku

The aim of the study was to determine the predicted impact of the rate of yield change and product prices as well as prices of inputs for agricultural production on the profitability of winter wheat, winter rye, spring barley and winter oilseed rape in the perspective of 2022. Classic models of development tendency were used to make the projection. In order to define expected changes in revenues and costs by 2022, the average product performance for 2013-2015 was taken as the starting point for the projection. Due to the variability in crop yields and product sales prices, projection variants were also made. The research shows that the production profitability (the ratio of production value to total costs, i.e. direct and indirect costs) of wheat, rye and oilseed rape will increase in 2022 by 7.8-17.6 % compared to projection base years, whereas the economic efficiency of barley production will decrease (by 0.8%). The results indicate a much greater variability in price than in yield over the years. The impact of price on the production profitability will be greater as well. It was found that oilseed race and barley are characterized by relatively high sensitivity to variability in yield and price (greater than in the case of wheat and rye).